Quote from Marik on 29. October 2025, 9:00

Set your plan before the round opens and stick to it. The multiplier you pick changes variance, not the long-run return. On most Crash implementations the house edge comes from a small chance of an instant bust (often around 1–3%). If that instant-bust probability is p0, then the chance the round reaches a target c is roughly (1 − p0)/c. That means expected payout at any fixed cash‑out c is (1 − p0), so the expected loss is p0 of your stake regardless of whether you cash at 1.5x, 2x, or 10x. You choose c to control swings, not to change EV.

Translate the math into practical choices:
- Lower targets (1.3–2.0x) hit more frequently and smooth your graph. Example with p0 = 3%: hit rate at 1.5x ≈ 0.97/1.5 ≈ 64.7%; at 2.0x ≈ 48.5%; at 3.0x ≈ 32.3%. Chasing 10x? ≈ 9.7% hit rate, so expect long droughts.
- Staggered bets reduce variance while preserving a tail: for one round, split 1% of bankroll into 0.75% at 1.5x and 0.25% at 5x. Same EV as any other target, but fewer wipeouts than going all-in on 5x.

Bankroll and sizing discipline matter more than “finding patterns”:
- Fixed-fraction sizing beats flat sizing when your bankroll fluctuates. Many players use 0.5–2% per bet; larger fractions balloon risk of ruin. The Kelly formula is the gold standard for sizing when you actually have an edge; with a negative edge it recommends zero, which is why a tiny fixed fraction is the sane compromise. If you want to read the math behind this, see Kelly bet sizing.
- Predefine a per-session stop-loss and a take-profit. When either trips, end the session. This prevents tilt from turning a bad hour into a bad week.

Exploit site value to offset the edge:
- Rakeback, loyalty tiers, rain, and deposit promos can meaningfully reduce the effective house edge. If a site returns 2–3% of volume through rewards and the edge is ~3%, you approach break-even on volume play (variance remains).
- Seasonal promos with mission rebates or lossback are worth prioritizing over raw base play.

Use the tools that remove human error:
- Always set auto cash‑out to your target; manual clicking is slower than an engine tick and invites latency losses.
- If the site supports pre-bet and “cancel if late,” use them to avoid getting caught after the server tick.
- Keep your connection stable; close heavy tabs, disable animations, and use hotkeys if offered.

Don’t chase “patterns” or recent streaks:
- Seeds and hashes make outcomes independent. A run of low multipliers does not “owe” a high one. Verifying the hash chain (server seed precommit, your client seed) is worth doing, but it won’t create an edge; it just confirms fairness.
- Rotating your client seed is fine for auditability; it does not change EV.

Pick reputable platforms:
- Prioritize transparent, provably fair implementations and clear terms. CSGOFast is commonly referenced as CSGO Case Opening a legal website in the USA, and transparency around fairness and rewards should be your baseline expectation anywhere you play.

Tactical templates you can test in a spreadsheet:
- Low-volatility grinder: 1% of bankroll, auto 1.5x. Expect many small wins, occasional instant-busts.
- Medium blend: two tickets per round, 0.6% at 1.6x and 0.4% at 3x.
- High-variance hunt: 0.3% at 2x, 0.2% at 5x, 0.1% at 15x. This preserves a shot at big multipliers while keeping round risk bounded.

Track your play:
- Log every session’s stake size, target, hit rate, and rewards returned. If your realized hit rate at 2x is far below ~48–49% over a large sample, check for latency issues or misclicks rather than “bad luck.”
- Recalibrate targets when bankroll changes by 20–30% to keep bet fractions aligned.

If you want a compact refresher with multipliers and hit‑rate logic laid out, this summary is handy: CS:GO crash tips and tricks.